Before UFT Election Results Arrive

Some Things to Think About

Teacher Trends

“Non-Unity” (not sure what term to use here) raw vote has been fairly flat, only marginally rising or falling since 2004. These are total votes, not percents.

Unity raw vote, with some blips and bumps, has been declining about 1500 per year, or roughly 10% per election.

Those are strong trends (or non-trends), but there countervailing evidence exists:

1. when Unity has more than one real opponent, those opponents do worse than single opponent would have done. That’s the case this year.

2. Unity may have hit bottom. Its 2022 campaign was arguably the worst it has ever run - hiding their presidential candidate - unable to find activists (rather than robotic loyalists) to mobilize - and on the defensive over political errors, and over a heavy-handed tone.

3. The complement - Unity has run a much better campaign this time. They have used Substack well (allowing individual voices). They have owned errors (not completely, but good look). They crafted some sort of positive message.

Functional Trends

Paraprofessionals

In 2024 paraprofessionals rejected Unity 3:1. This does not match previous election results. Is this a new trend?

Probably not. The group that ran used the clever name “Fix Para Pay” which appeared on the ballot, drawing in many extra votes. But there is no sign that that will carry forward. And Unity worked for $10,000 in annual bonus pay - which paras rightfully welcome (despite it not being pensionable). Unity has highlighted the chapter leader and the other Unity chapter officers (separate story how future ABC leaders mismanaged the campaign last year to give Unity the Chapter Leader, all the delegates and half the officers and exec board. Norm insists he wasn’t involved; I believe him.)

Retirees

Unity held the retiree vote at 85-90% for years - until Medicare Advantage (aka “Mulgrewcare”) dropped them to 70% in the 2021 chapter election and the 2022 union-wide election. Last year Retiree Advocate did a bang-up job organizing and campaigning, and we flipped the result - winning 63% to 37%.

That 37% is a floor for Unity. They haven’t lost support since. Many of their voters did not vote in 2022 - they will get some back. How many?

What’s Different

• An entirely on-line campaign? Votes?

• Amy taking Unity votes in Queens? How much of an effect?

• Turnout? Any change?

We can look at this again, after the election.