NYC Primary Odds

June 8 2026

New York 6. New York 7. New York 10. New York 12. New York 13. New York 15.

These reflect how bettors are betting. Like making Vegas-style bets on the winner. These are NOT opinion polls.

Four of these six (6, 10, 13, 15) involve incumbents – one is trailing, one is in a tight race, and two maybe hanging on. And for those four races, AIPAC (backing the incumbent) is a major issue. It’s not just Palestine – it’s progressive vs centrist, Mamdani vs Cuomo, AOC/Bernie vs Schumer.

NY-6

NY-6 Polymarket

• Meng (incumbent) 88%

• Park 10%

• Xiong 1%

NY-6 Kalshi

• Meng (incumbent) 85%

• Park 15%

• Xiong <1%

NYSUT endorsed Meng.

NY-7

NY-7 Polymarket

• Reynoso 29%

• Valdez 69%

• Won 4%

NY-7 Kalshi

• Reynoso 28%

• Valdez 72%

• Won 5%

NYSUT endorsed Reynoso. This one is WFP vs DSA. WFP endorsed Reynoso. Mamdani endorsed Valdez.

NY-10

NY-10 Polymarket

• Goldman (incumbent) 4%

• Lander 96%

NY-10 Kalshi

• Goldman (incumbent) 5%

• Lander 93%

WFP endorsed Lander. Mamdani endorsed Lander.

I’ll take the moment to remind readers that the UFT claimed to have made an endorsement in CD-10, but never submitted the decision to the Delegate Assembly for ratification. Breaking the rules is bad. Backing a loser can be bad. But cheating to back a loser? Not really impressive.

NY-12

NY-12 Polymarket

• Bores 41%

• Conway 2%

• Lasher 53%

• Schlossberg 9%

NY-12 Kalshi

• Bores 43%

• Conway 3%

• Lasher 57%

• Schlossberg 7%

NYSUT endorsed Bores. Teachers do not like Lasher and his associations with school reform and Bloomberg. But no one exciting here.

NY-13

NY-13 Polymarket

• Chevalier 54%

• Espaillat (incumbent) 42%

NY -13 Kalshi

• Chevalier 55%

• Espaillat (incumbent) 45%

NYSUT endorsed Espaillat. Mamdani endorsed Darializa Avila Chevalier. New York Progressive Action Network switched their endorsement to Chevalier.

NY-15

NY-15 Polymarket

• Blake 2%

• Torres (incumbent) 87%

NY-15 Kalshi

• Blake 3%

• Torres (incumbent) 70%

NYSUT endorsed Torres.